Fed’s forecast after raising key rate: 3 more hikes in 2017

Responding to a question at a news conference, Chair Janet Yellen said she didn’t think the economy needed stimulus from President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tax cuts and infrastructure spending — the kind of fiscal support that Yellen and her predecessor, Ben Bernanke, had called for in the past.

Yellen said such policies would be unlikely to maximize employment, since the unemployment rate — 4.6 per cent, a nine-year low — is now slightly below the Fed’s own long-term target.

“My predecessor and I called for fiscal stimulus when the unemployment rate was substantially higher than it is now,” she said.

The Fed chair stressed that she wasn’t providing advice or guidance to the incoming Trump administration. And she downplayed any expectations that Trump’s economic program could lead to faster rate hikes resulting from higher inflation.

The Fed’s move Wednesday, only the second rate hike in the past decade, came on a unanimous 10-0 vote. The central bank also released updated forecasts that showed modest changes to its outlook for growth, unemployment and inflation, mainly to take account of a stronger economy and job market.

James Marple, senior economist at TDBank, said the Fed’s forecast of three rate increases next year, up from two, was the “only real surprise” Wednesday.

“The move up is a signal that the Fed has become more confident in the economic outlook and that inflation will increasingly track closer to the 2 per cent target,” Marple said.

It’s hardly guaranteed that the Fed’s forecast for three hikes in 2017 will prove accurate. Last year at this time, for example, the Fed predicted it would raise rates four times in 2016. It turns out it’s raising them just once.

Wednesday’s rate increase should have little effect on mortgages or auto and student loans. The Fed doesn’t directly affect those rates, at least not in the short run. But rates on some other loans — notably credit cards, home equity loans and adjustable-rate mortgages — will likely rise soon, though only modestly. Those rates are based on benchmarks like banks’ prime rate, which moves in tandem with the Fed’s key rate.

After the Fed’s announcement, several major banks announced that they were raising their prime rate from 3.50 per cent to 3.75 per cent.

“This single quarter-point move in interest rates will go largely unnoticed at the household level, but coupled with last year’s hike, the cumulative effect could mount quickly if the Fed quickens the pace of rate hikes in 2017,” said Greg McBride, Bankrate.com’s chief financial analyst.

Mortgage rates have been surging since Trump’s presidential victory last month on expectations that his economic program would accelerate economic growth and inflation.

Stock investors appeared disappointed by the Fed’s forecast of three rate increases in 2017. The Dow Jones industrial average closed down about 118 points — 0.6 per cent — a sign that stock investors are pricing in additional Fed rate hikes. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.57 per cent from 2.47 per cent

Yellen attributed the Fed’s higher number of estimated rate hikes for 2017 to a lower unemployment rate and possibly some changes in federal budget policy beginning next year. But she emphasized that any changes to the Fed’s projections were “modest.”

She said Fed officials, during their meeting, discussed Trump’s economic plans as well as the surge in stock prices, bond yields and the dollar that’s followed his election. She said they reached no conclusions.

“We are operating under a cloud of uncertainty at the moment, and we have time to wait and to see what changes occur and to factor those into our decision-making,” she said.

In response to a question, Yellen said she plans to serve out her four-year term, which ends in February 2018. Most analysts don’t expect her to remain after that.

The Fed’s latest projections have the unemployment rate dipping to 4.5 per cent by the end of 2017 and remaining at that level in 2018. It foresees economic growth reaching 1.9 per cent this year and 2.1 per cent in 2017, slightly more optimistic than it projected in September.

The central bank kept its long-term estimate for economic growth at 1.8 per cent, far below the 4 per cent pace that Trump has said he can achieve with his economic program.

Overall, the Fed’s policy statement showed only modest changes in wording from the previous meeting. It did note that inflation expectations “have moved up considerably but still are low.”

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AP Business Writers Christopher S. Rugaber in Washington and Ken Sweet in New York contributed to this report.

Martin Crutsinger, The Associated Press

by Canadian Press

Fed’s forecast after raising key rate: 3 more hikes in 2017

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